Tricks

Doc Dog - personality test

What’s your answer? Learn what it tells about you below:

 

a) fat hat: OK you have gross sense of humor – you like fat jokes. I like them too, sometimes.

b) elephant in snake: OK you have a classical mind. I guess you know the classic “The Little Prince”. I love it.

c) Covid-19 in hospital: OK you see Coronavirus everywhere. You are right. You have great analytical mind. You understand the analogy: the elephant is the overload… the snake is the health system (if overloaded with too many Covid patients at once… like the overload in Italy, Spain, New York, etc.). You understand  flattening the curve means to avoid the elephant to go in the sneak. Thus to save the lives of both.

d) nation in confinement: OK you see the nation in isolation. Everybody sees that. But not everybody understands why! I believe you understand. If not, see point c. Anyway it’s simple, better stay home than in the hospital snake.

e) 1 pic IQ test: Ok you love psychology and knowledge. You are like my team-mate Jordan. Just don’t focus too much on introspection and analysis of dreams. Inspect the world too, it’s even more funny.

f) all the answers: Wow you see the global picture! I hope you are a global leader! Or at least a national one.

 

Now, let’s get out of the box…

or see how to ease out safely the elephant locked-down home to normal life… without overloading the health system snake.

This seems tricky… but is easy and doable with the right strategy.

Let’s see the elements of the puzzle:

  1. You know keeping the elephant safe in home is so heavy…. but vital! So that to save both the elephant (the people) and the sneak (the health system)..
  2. You know too that you can’t lock down the elephant too long… or it risks to explode!
  3. You know also that you can’t let the elephant go out without exploding the health system.

At first it seems all the elements of this puzzle risk explosions! Including the economy and everything. How to solve this explosive puzzle?

See the picture again. Imagine the elephant is made of modules like Lego bricks. Easy out the Lego elephant bit by bit. By groups of modules.  Make selective groups by resilient ones and fragile ones. Consult the official guides for the relative risks for each  group. Be prudent, don’t forget this Lego elephant is made of living people!  Select the most resilient  group with the lowest health risk (as low as usually). Let this selected group out to normal life activities.

Let the pieces of this selective group out mix between them.  Do not mix them with the other groups. Now your elephant lock-down in home is a bit less heavy. Your sneak (the health system) does not risk overloading. Your selective group out is happy and working helping supporting all the jungle… oops the zoo park.

This way the rest of the elephant and the sneak do not die of hunger.  In a few weeks the group out will get natural immunity. Then you put out the next group. In a couple of cycles all resilient groups, the major part of your elephant, should be naturally immune. Then Coronavirus can’t spread anymore, like a domino effect.  So  the whole elephant can go out. Back to normal life. Having saved maximum lives and the economy. Yes, the world must go on!

Attention: some wise guy may think aha it’s like ”herd immunity” or ”group immunity”… No, it’s not! At least not the classical one. It’s selective group immunity by selective group isolation… leading gradually to herd immunity of the population. The classical herd immunity would be to let all the dogs out… oops I mean the whole elephant! If so, you would destroy vital parts of your elephant, sneak and the whole jungle. I mean the zoo-park.

That’s it with the puzzle Lego like jungle analogy. Now let’s put it in plain text. Let’s see a real world guide for the risks by groups of age. Here is a quote of a new report (out of more than 70 000 cases studied), published March 30, of The Lancet Infectious Diseases medical journal:

As for the death rate, the risk was near zero for people under 40; crept up to 0.2% for people 40 to 49; to 0.6% for 50-somethings; just under 2% for people in their 60s; 4.3% for those in their 70s; and 7.8% for those in their 80s, the findings showed.”

As you can see the Covid-19 risk is selective by age groups! It’s really dangerous for the elderly groups. But the age groups up to 40, even up to 50,  are comparable to flu in terms of risks. Yes Coronavirus Sars Cov2 is not a flu virus, but you can still make valid comparisons in terms of risk rates. Covid-19 and Influenza are both contagious respiratory diseases. You can compare both as you can compare relative risks of cars and airplanes accidents and deaths – both are modes of transport.

Please think smart with nuances. Coronavirus is not black or white.

By now our governments measures have been necessary and vital. Please keep following strictly the official directives. The more we do it, the sooner we’ll come back to normal life. In any case it will take some time. This virus is already widely spread. We can’t wait it just to disappear like a magic trick.

It’s not the right time to lose our time in critics what  should have be done in the past. Now is the time to prepare for the future. To explore different scenarios how to solve the crisis of Covid-19 in 2020. We can do it together. With the right attitude, this historic crisis can help us come out stronger, smarter, happier.  Let’s hope too to become better humans. Let’s be united, let’s appreciate love and life together.

P.S. If you need a deeper  analysis of the Pandemics dilemma to confine or not… as well as suggested solutions see Jordan’s  blog posts:

To be or not to be… free

Selective group immunity

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