Coronavirus sum up – the sum of all fears (or the real movie SARS1 & SARS2)

Hey, here is what  my team-mate Jordan wrote to his friends a dozen of days ago. I know he wrote it quickly and it’s crude, but I’m not editing it. Anyway I’m Doc Dog, not an Editor. English is not our first language and we don’t have the time to look for editors. So I leave his text as it is. Just read his words and you’ll see the global picture in an interesting perspective:


20 mars, à 16 h 24

Hey my friends, some of you know I’m an ex agent of CIA, member of an epidemiology team.

Here is my sum up about the Coronavirus and Covid 19 that may save your life.

Now that I have your attention, CIA joke apart, in fact I’m an ex research agent within CIHR – Canadian Institutes of Health Research, in an epidemiology team. In plus my wife is a medical doctor, urgent department specialist and orthopedic surgeon. We combine our scientific and clinical expertise to help our friends.

Just take a few minutes to read our easy guide about Coronavirus – Covid 19. It may be a bit funny, but it is very serious about your health.


A la guerre comme a la guerre aka at war as at war.

Yes it is wartime! Global epidemics (pandemics) do take more victims than global wars.

In 1918, the spanish flu killed 50 to 100 millions people in the world. More deaths than the World War 1 and 2 together.

Now back to 2020 and Covid19.

All we need to protect us is easy. Wu must know:

1) Who is the enemy?
2) Where is the battlefield?
3) How to kill the enemy?

Who is the enemy?

Coronavirus is in the family of Corleone… oops Coronaviridae. Yep it is like a mysterious mafioso family of different viruses. So Corona virus is not a single mafioso. This is simply a new unknown mass killer of a known old family!

This Coronavirus old family, established among humans since past century, mingles with human life, more or less friendly. But, in 2003 it started playing with human deaths too.

To see the future of Coronavirus in 2020 – we must see the past in 2003.

Let’s focus at two deadly brothers of this family.

The first virus, the one in 2003, dropped dead 774 persons… and dropped dead himself quite fast. His name was SARS CoV. The abbreviation CoV meaning Corleone Vitto, oops Corona Virus. SARS stands for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. Ok they named him after his family name and the name of the illness that he caused.

Now, in 2020, actually in 2019, humanity got terrified by the brother of the deadly dead SARS CoV. The new brother is called Coronavirus. You understand already it’s a mess! It’s like calling all Corleone, just Corleone… it’s not specific. So they started calling him Covid19. It comes from Corona virus disease 2019. So everybody calls the new coronavirus… the coronavirus or Covid19. But his official name, as known in the CIA labs and every lab and hospital in the world as well as in the scientific literature and the World Health Organisation is…. SARS CoV2! Yep officially the new Coronavirus causing Covid19 is named SARS CoV2. Just like his brother in 2003 SARS CoV!

So SARS CoV from 2003 and SARS CoV2 the current coronavirus, both sound almost the same! More interestingly they both have similar genetics, history, behavior and manner of killing. Indeed these both viruses are more than brothers…. they are almost identical twins! They share 80% of their genetics. For example you and your brother or sister, you share 50% genetics. Identical twins 100% the same genetic. So SARS CoV and SARS CoV2 are near identical twins.

Let”s focus on the similarities of SARS CoV from 2003 and SARS CoV2 from 2020. For simplicity we call them SARS1 and SARS2.

SARS1 and SARS2, these two good fellows, may camouflage like ordinary flu or common cold, but both may cause… SARS!

SARS – Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.

How severe is this severe acute respiratory syndrome? For SARS2, the coronavirus now in action, it’s still unknown for sure. As a rule of thumb, you can’t calculate the exact risk and fatalities rates DURING an epidemic outbreak. You can just speculate by more or less educated guesses! You know to forecast is difficult, especially when it is about the future. But to see the future, the past may help.

So, let’s imagine a time machine back travel in 2003 or simply the phantom of SARS1 appearing now: “Hey I’m the phantom of the dead SARS1 from 2003… may I help you?”.

Yes, you can! We bet, you can. So what happened in 2003? There is a bad news and a huge good news.

The bad news from 2003 is SARS1 killed 9.6% (near 10%) of all people tested positive for coronavirus. 10 % case fatalities rate is huge! For a comparison a seasonal flu may kill usually 0,1 to 0,5% (sometime up to 1%) out of the infected people. Thus, SARS1 was deadlier 20 to 100 folds than the ordinary flu.

The good news from 2003 is SARS1 killed “only” 774 persons in the world! Again, compared to the mere flu… the flu every years kills hundreds of thousands people in the world. So SARS1 was near one thousand fold less killer than the flu. In other words for each 1 dead person of SARS1 you had up to 1000 deaths from flu! SARS1 was active just one year, even less. Flu is active each year. So every year the flu kills hundreds to thousand fold more people than SARS1 in 2003.

Remember this SARS1 in 2003 lived fast and dangerous… shortly. Stay calm and keep reading.

Now and by now in 2020, SARS2 aka the coronavirus you know, killed already 10 000+ persons out of 250 000+ infected. It keeps infecting and killing more and more every day. No one knows for sure when the peak will come (although we have some promising indications)… For the moment is is all about hopes and fears.

The sum of all fears is that SARS2 may continue to grow exponentially like flu… (to double the numbers of infected and dead persons every couple of days or even faster). Yes, it may spread like flu, even more. If the situation is not controlled. The big difference is SARS2 aka Covid19 is much deadlier than flu. How much deadlier? It appears to be in the range of 10 folds (possibly hundred folds) more than the flu. To make a big range: flu mortality victims out of the infected are 0.1 to 1%, but SARS2 aka Covid19 seems in the range of 1 to 10%. If infected with Coronavirus no one has a surviving guarantee. Even young and healthy persons are at some risk. The older you are and or less healthy – the greater the fatality risk.

One way or another it gonna find you… it gonna getcha…if you don’t take measures! Even if you take measures, you never know.

Lirics apart. This virus is dangerous. Anyway we must stop it. Or it will stop the world. At least the world we know.

There is no place for panic or neglecting the threat of SARS2 – coronavirus – Covid19. On one hand many people are over concerned. On the other hand still many people think their relatives, the governments and the media are over reacting… like “oh come on, all the buzz for “a few deaths” for something like a flu or common cold”.

If you have read carefully this post, you would have understood that yes the threat is real. SARS is not a flu and the flu is not SARS. Yes the chances to avoid a family or world catastrophe are real. If we take calmly all the necessary measures – we have all the chances to suffer less fatalities from Covid19 than a seasonal flu. We have all the chances to save us and the world.

For the moment we urge you, to follow strictly all the official measures by the governments. Preventive Self-isolation, hand washing, not touching your eyes, nose and mouth, etc It is simple, necessary and it helps.

To be continued very soon with our specific advises.



Now, you see me? Oops I mean the picture. The global picture. I bet, not yet!

Let me help you with my own picture with my own protection measures. See it here

Doc Dog


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